nyenaceyg
Dołączył: 13 Gru 2010
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 Wysłany: Wto 12:02, 12 Kwi 2011 Temat postu: 2030 double the global share in China _4494 |
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2030: China to double global share
2 0 Bo 03 years of management sharply: in the grounds Nations share in the making across the board to double the ball.
to promote the normalization of the transition costs
current consumption less than a number of reasons, many people say that is because we do not have the social security system, income inequality, income growth is not fast enough, These are all the more important reason, but the whole, I think there are more important.
life down to Thrifty not China, but the system environment for our frugality. Chinese consumption growth is relatively slow, mainly related with the distribution of social wealth. Data show that the distribution of labor income, the proportion of GDP, declining, currently accounts for only about 35% of GDP. This means that relative to overall economic development, people have become relatively poorer, and the last ratio is rich, but compared to the entire economy is poor.
One very important reason is the cost of distortion, since the late 1980s, the price reform, the opening prices of major commodities, but the left tail is the only input price is still controlled by the government, land, commodities, coupled with environmental costs, which are distorted. It means that the so-called distortions in prices below market prices.
distortions in China's labor force in what it? One is the household registration system, we have over 50 years of household registration system, if you were born a farmer, farmers are basically my life, except college, or expropriation of land, and enjoy the social welfare of migrant workers is far below the city workers; the second from the land system, our system is the collective ownership of land, which looks fair, but it will not let farmers sell land. Imagine, if I am a farmer, want to go to cities to work, my pot of gold is probably to sell the land, but land can not be sold, the only way is to work, work and influence by the household registration system.
so labor income will be changed to improve the household registration system and land system should be equal treatment of migrant workers. On the land system, the state levy, farmers get little compensation, the farmers who lived in the city could become a very wealthy man, but made most of the benefits collected by the state to the state's hands, the farmers became landless and unemployed .
In addition, our interest rates are controlled, the maximum lending rate of banks is 4 times the central bank benchmark interest rate. We understand that private finance is actually a very simple pricing, the number of deposit rates, lending rates to double in the above. Interest rate liberalization has many advantages. I do a lot of different countries, liberalization of interest rates, the market lending rate will increase 2 percentage points, the 2 percentage point interest rate should be to the people, but now to the business.
the purpose of the cost of distorting what is it? Government, through the distortion of the price increase is the company's revenue, increase corporate profits, corporate profits increased by what is good? Enterprises for investment is high, our GDP growth quickly, but people's incomes do not rise, still not spend this kind of logic in the export-oriented economy is feasible.
but if you want the will of the people to increase consumption, we need a whole re-adjustment of the price system, the cost of distorting the system will change, I put the cost of this process is called normalization.
discussion of the household registration system has been under way, may be three to five years after the abolition of the hukou system. On land compensation, the current policy is a national non-unified collection. The public nature of repair highways, national unified collection, if it is covered or commercial enterprises, the State is not unified collection, who use the land and farmers who talks so that farmers can reflect the market value of the property out of the income of the people will increase. But this presents a problem, the producer of the profits will be squeezed. But I think that this is not much of a problem, because the cost of normalization of China's competitive advantage can be maintained.
recent news that, because China's production costs, such as Nike and other manufacturers to move abroad. This may be reasonable, but I personally think that the overall labor cost advantage of China will continue for a long time, why? One important thing is the experience of Korea and Taiwan.
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